There is a common saying in business, “If it isn’t monitored, then it isn’t managed.” In essence, oversight is crucial for effective management. The Tax Project is dedicated to examining transparency and the responsible use of taxpayer dollars. This article analyzes claims made by an independent source (referred to as “DOGE”) regarding data within the Social Security system. This analysis is provided as an example for how it might be Monitored and Managed, and helped in the placing of the public’s Trust, had it been made public to begin with.
We will caution that the following analysis is based on public statements and data released by DOGE, and their analysis of Social Security. The Tax Project cannot independently verify the validity of this data, and therefore the conclusions presented here should be viewed as an example and not as an expert analysis.
“Sunlight is said to be the best of disinfectants; electric light the most efficient policeman.”
Louis D. Brandeis
DOGE Claim
The following analysis provides context for a data release by DOGE, who posted their analysis on the number of individuals marked as “alive” in the Social Security system, categorized by age group (Image Attached). Here is the post:
The Tax Project has included the data, and used OCR, as a way to clarify the analysis, and show that it can be reviewed and verified.
Analysis of Social Security Data
According to the data provided by DOGE, the total number of individuals listed as “alive” in the Social Security system is 398 Million (398,416,213). The Tax Project acknowledges that this data has not been independently verified and presents this analysis as an example of the potential benefits of increased transparency in government data.
A comparative analysis with U.S. Census Bureau population estimates (~341.4 million) suggests a discrepancy of approximately 57 million individuals. Further research is needed to understand the factors contributing to this difference. Potential explanations include differences in data collection methodologies, reporting lags, or the inclusion of non-citizens within the Social Security database.
Age Group Discrepancies
The data also highlights notable figures within specific age groups:
- Individuals aged 100-109: The dataset indicates 4 Million (4,734,407) individuals within this age range. This contrasts with estimates from a Pew Research study, which suggests there are roughly 101,000 Americans aged 100 or older.
- Individuals aged 120-129: According to the provided data, there are 3 Million (3,472,849) individuals listed within this age range. This raises questions, as the oldest verified living human lived to be 122 years old, and the oldest living American lived to 119.
- Anomalies: The data reports 1.3 Million people over age 150, including one individual in the 360-369 age range.
Potential Implications
These discrepancies raise questions about the accuracy and reliability of the data within the Social Security system, and if true erode the public trust. While the data does not directly indicate improper payments, the presence of a significant number of individuals listed in age ranges exceeding known human lifespans warrants further scrutiny. Erroneous data may potentially impact resource allocation and be subject to abuse and mismanagement. Data validation and reconciliation are necessary to ensure funds are properly allocated. Based on the 20 million excess population of 100+ year old persons in the database at the average Social Security annual benefit of $23,700 the potential misallocation could be over $470 Billion a year. While it is highly unlikely that the actual figure of improper payments, if any, is any where near this figure the discrepancies create opportunities for poor outcomes.
Transparency and Data Management
The Tax Project advocates for increased transparency in government data management practices. Making Social Security data more accessible to public scrutiny could potentially facilitate independent verification and improve data quality. Robust data validation processes are essential to ensuring the responsible and productive use of taxpayer dollars. Greater transparency could include:
- Regular, independent audits of Social Security data management practices.
- The creation of a publicly accessible data portal (while protecting individual privacy) to allow for external analysis.
- Improved data documentation and metadata to clarify data collection methodologies and potential limitations.
The Tax Project continues to focus on transparency, and helping the public understand the use of their Tax dollars. We hope that this kind of transparency becomes available in the future so that all Americans can inspect and understand where their money is spent.
